1894 complaints of rape and sexual assault were filed to police of the state of Bavaria in 2000. The consensus estimate of all responsible officials is that way over 50% of accusations are false. Even when accusations are very dubious, police still file rape/sexual assault proceedings with prosecutors. Only in 7.4% of the complaints (1 in 13, N= 140) they propose legal action against the accuser for evidently false accusations, when there is clear proof or confession. The results of this meticulous 320 page research about rape and sexual assault in Bavaria replicate a less rigorous study in Schleswig Holstein state in 1994/1995, where 7.6% of complaints led to filing of false police report.
The following 320 page study analyses police inquiries of rape and sexual assault, and how police forwards these cases to prosecutors. It is based on all 1894 such complaints in the state of Bavaria/Germany in the year 2000. It deserves to be translated into English in its entirety.
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Police officials agree that way over 50% of accusations are false
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Even highly dubious and unlikely accusations will be forwarded to prosecutors for rape/ sexual assault prosecution, and not for prosecution for false accusations. This is why statistics show such low numbers for false rape accusations.
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Only 7.4% of accusers are recommended for prosecution as false accusations (due to clear evidence or confessions)
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64% of rape/sexual assault cases dropped by prosecution for lack of evidence are considered false accusations by the police official in charge of the initial complaint
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Thus 1/5 to 1/3 of all cases were identified as patently false accusations, by the responsible police officials.
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Human-Stupidity concludes that false rape is under-reported at least 7-fold
Rape and sexual assault in Bavaria | PDF
Munich 2005
ISBN 3-924400-16-4
6) Faking of or false suspicion of rape or sexual assault
In 2000, among all events, that initially appeared to police to be a cases of rape or sexual assault, only 7.4% were were registered as faking of a crime or false suspicion. In almost all of these cases there is strong evidence of these crimes [of falsehood]. Cases that remain doubtful and unclear after police inquiry will be handed to prosecutors as accusations of rape or sexual assault. (p. 176)
Police rarely send prosecutors accusations for false rape or sexual assault. This seems in stark contradiction to the [high] frequency estimates (by officials and police responsible for sexual crimes) of such false accusations . These [officials] estimate that such crimes have a very high occurrence, but don’t have statistical research data collections to back up such estimates. One department chief maintains:
"All officials dealing with sexual crimes are in agreement, that way over half the sex crimes reported to police are fake. Many such accusations cause an assumption of a sham or false accusation. But proof is not strong enough to prosecute [the accuser]. (p. 177)
The authors explain, that even in cases where there are very strong doubts about the truthfulness of the accusations, police will only file an accusation of rape or sexual assault, and not one of false accusations. This is why the statistics seem to contradict the above "over half" false accusation statement.
Let this sink in. There are clearly more false accusations then there are true accusations. Police authorities from the Christian conservative state of Bavaria/Germany agree that most rape/sexual assault accusations are false!
The report makes clear that proof of false accusations is very difficult, absent a confession of the alleged victim. In all these cases, there will be prosecution for rape/sexual assault and not for false accusations, even if there is significant doubt as to the veracity of the accusations.
While the serious psychological and social consequences of rape and sexual assault have been the subject of various investigations, knowledge about the impact on the falsely accused is lacking. The data for our project do not permit us to arrive at definite empirical conclusions. […]
When accusations are dropped due to lack of corroborative evidence and witnesses, then, in spite of very significant doubts about the crime description by the alleged victim […] there always remains a residual suspicion because the accused can not totally disprove the accusation. (p. 180)
[…] adding 1754 cases recorded as rape or sexual assault for the year 2000, and 140 false accusations, yields 1894 transactions which the police initially considered rape or sexual assault. Only 7.4% resulted in charges of false accusations of rape or sexual assault. [… results in the state of Bavaria] correspond exactly to the results of a survey (without scientific rigor) in the state of Schleswig Holstein. For the years 1994/1995 it showed a 7.6% rate of shams and false accusations demonstrated "beyond reasonable doubt". (p. 182)
There is a 1 in 13 rate of obvious false accusations. (7/4%)
The authors speculate that under the assumption of a 3 to 10 fold under-reporting of rape, that would result in a 1 in 38 (3 fold under-reporting) or one in 125 (10 fold under-reporting). On the other hand, some of the cases passed to courts as rape or sexual assault end with a conviction for false accusations.
Human-Stupidity comment:
False accusations of rape/sexual assault are under-reported 7-fold
The above conclusions are false.
- First there is no scientific basis to assume 3 to 10 fold under-reporting of rape
- don’t forget, that police experts only report 7.4% false rapes in spite of strongly suspecting false accusations in way over 50% of the accusations. As mentioned, if in doubt, police file only for rape/sexual assault, even if they are convinced the complaint is false.
So there is an over 7 fold under-reporting of false rape accusations by police! (7 * 7.4% = 51.8%, which is less then "way over 50%"). Police do file rape accusations with prosecutors, even if they clearly believe the rape has not happened. And police do not file a false rape accusation, even when they are convinced that such a crime has happened. Probably they should file BOTH rape and false rape accusations at the same time!?
Clearly false rape is an under-reported crime. We need to encourage the victims of false rape accusations to come forward and counter-sue. As quoted in the report, it is the consensus that there are more false accusations then true accusations. Men’s Right activists can learn from feminists. They can demand the same treatment for alleged victims of false rape accusations as feminists have demanded and gotten for alleged rape victims.