German bankruptcy? When will Germany default?

Moody’s threatens Germany downgrade. According to "Die Welt" there are 4 faults that doom the Euro. No heroic attempts will save the Euro. Rather will doom Germany, too. Germany is giving loans and guarantees assuming a Trillion Euro in guarantees for doomed countries. Several times its yearly budget of just over 300 Billion Euro. And this is before the unlimited rescue packages for the bigger countries like Italy and Spain. 

german-bankrupt-euroMistake 1: All people are equal. Germany developed solar and wind energy, while Greece, Spain and Portugal have much twice as much wind and sun. The latters simply lack the inventiveness and energy of the Germans.

Mistake 2: Lower interest (in Southern Europe) decrease cost of government debt and create growth. Changing from Drachma, Escudo, Lira to Euro decreased interest rates from 10% to 2%. Instead of using the gains to pay back government debt, these countries went on a spending spree. High government expenses please voters. Greek government salaries doubled in 10 years. Note that Germany, Sweden manage austerity measures (see Mistake 1). Spending and growth were based on borrowing, while the economy was destroyed by cheaper and more efficient German production.

Mistake 3: one same interest 2% level levels differences Germany’s support payments caused a boom in Spain. 2% interest loans with 3.5% inflation really invites overspending. Germany should have lower interest rates of 1% (and thus more growth and consumption. Southern countries should have had 6%-7%. interest rates.

Mistake 4: One currency leads to same wages. The lower quality of French cars was offset by lower prices due to currency devaluation of the Franc. Now Peugeot is closing factories because they cannot decrease their cost to compete against better German products. (source "Die Welt")

.Target 2 debt owed by the South to the North accumulated to about 1 Trillion Euro of unpaid (and unpayable) debt. The signs of doom were visible for a decade, but were swept under the rug until the problems became huge and unmanageable. The unavoidable doom of Greek, Spanish and other countries finances will be delayed by Germany taking unmanageable unlimited risk. Thus Germany might sink together with these countries. The iron-clad "no bailout clause" was simply violated, just as debt limits. So there is no reason to believe that any new agreement will be kept, in the long run.

Human-Stupidity Analysis

The Euro was doomed from the start. The idea that a common currency can join Europe into a unity has proven to be flawed. It is destroying European countries and create serious irreparable hostilities between nations.

False dogma and political correctness cause suffering.

Germany is guaranteeing several years of its federal budget to other countries.

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The Euro destroys Europe. Euro breakup necessary to save Europe.

Inflation and production cost differences cause irreparable financial desequilibrium and  cause havoc in Euro zone

Countries with different inflation rates are are bound together into the common Euro currency. No more corrective currency devaluations !  Production cost differences create serious permanent economical and financial imbalances and fan hostility between nations. Germany resents paying and guaranteeing crippling amounts of money, worth several years of federal government budget. Greece resents forced austerity, wage reductions and severe recession. The Euro causes suffering, injustice and resentment among European nations. The Euro should have never been introduced as common currency for economically diverse nations.

Euro breakup scenarios

A breakup would be painful. Germany has guaranteed and loaned too much. Loans are too. The European central bank bought lots of potential default papers, in order to transfer losses from banks to the tax payer.

But every year these loans increase further.  Greece, Italy, Spain have become too uncompetitive and indebted. `Germany’s currency is under-valued, salaries are too low, leading to enormous export surpluses. 

Coins and bills of Greek, or German currencies would need to be minted, causing serious logistic problems. .

Finland leads the way

Finland could leave the Eurozone rather than pay other nations’ debts, says Jutta Urpilainen

The finance minister stressed that Finland, one of only a few EU countries to still enjoy a triple-A credit rating, would not agree to an integration model in which countries were collectively responsible for member states’ debts and risks.

She also insisted that a proposed banking union would not work if it were based on joint liability.


"We need A Europe of sovereign nations", said General DeGaulle’s

DeGaulle, French hero, general, and ex-president,  had the right vision. He wanted collaboration of sovereign nations, not forced equalization of European nations.

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Different cultures, differing inflation, same currency. The Euro aggresses cultural identities, thus creates animosity.

Over the year, Northern and Southern European nations moved further and further apart, in prices, productivity, production cost. German exports became cheaper, because German workers get paid too little in a currency that is undervalued in Holland and Germany, and overvalued in Greece and Italy.

Cultural diversity, the obstacle to Euro’s functioning

Northern and Southern European countries always had different attitudes towards work, savings, inflation, leisure, strikes, and thus very different inflation rates.

Inflation rates always were differentHistorical Inflation Rates before and after Euro
Production cost (Unit Labor Cost) and accumulated inflation drifted apart further and further, year after year. Target 2 debt owed by the South to the North accumulated to about 1 Trillion Euro of unpaid (and unpayable) debt. The signs of doom were visible for a decade, but were swept under the rug until the problems became huge and unmanageable.
The Euro will only work if European diversity gets destroyed: Let Greek and Italians work harder then the Dutch, and Germans, And Germans need to spend more then Southern Europe. Equal attitudes would not suffice. It is not enough if Italian and Greek productivity and inflation move in unison with Germany, Holland and Austria. 13 years of divergence have to be undone.

Germany’s production cost increased 8% over 13 years, and Southern European cost increased 33%. This obviously causes a permanent and lasting trade imbalance.

Production Cost becomes more divergent over time

Unit Labor Cost (determines production cost and thus competitiveness) differ more and more over time, turning Southern European products too expensive to compete, German products relatively cheap

All proposed solutions involve European central government interference to force nations to change their traditional ways. Government interference in wages, prices, borrowing habits. The  Greeks need to get forced to work and save like the Dutch, and the Germans enticed to increase wages and spend like the Italians. 

Rules and agreements have been broken before (debt ceiling, no-bailout-clause, ..). There is no reason that new rules will finally be kept. Nor is it clear that such discipline is desirable and useful for the offending Southern European nations. Not only is the population fiercely protesting against austerity. They are right, austerityis strangling these nations and leads to recession.

Currency devaluation and revaluation due to market forces have been eliminated with the advent of the common European currency. Devaluation was the old and tried solution that maintained trade and debt equilibrium and needed no government interference.

Relative value of Euro against national currency has always moved in opposite directions

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Diversity of European Cultures dooms the Euro. Greeks need to work like Germans, Dutch to spend like Italians for the Euro to function.

Train strikes in Italy

I was about to leave Italy, by train, when I was surprised by a country-wide railroad strike . Luckily I was near the France border and made it out on next day’s only train. That train happened to pass through a short stretch of French mountain villages and allowed me to continue the trip in France.

My European train trip prevented me from posting last month. And this strike made it clear to me why the common currency, the Euro, can not work.

This strike clearly showed to me what is wrong in Europe. Italians (Greeks,Spaniards, Portuguese) strike to prevent austerity even in the face of imminent bankruptcy. Germans (Austrians, Durch) traditionally accept austerity measures and voluntary restraint, just for stability’s and employment’s sake. German labor unions accept wage cuts, increased retirement age, while their southern counterparts fight teeth and nails for every possible advantage. It has always been this way.

The Italians don’t understand the Germans, and vice versa. In the Euro debt crisis, century-old incompatible cultures clash. Italy defines itself as connection to a person. Not the structure is relevant, but a personal relationship. The Italians know how to take advantage of the Germans (Anton Börner)

Europe’s amazing diversity of cultures and life styles is being threatened

Europe’s amazing diversity of cultures and life styles is being threatened by the Euro. Countries have vastly differing attitudes in hard working vs. relaxed life, ,workers unions’ strikes vs. self worker’s self restraint, sacrifice for the common good vs. self-interest.

Southern European countries’ inflationary tendencies, relaxed attitude towards work, punctuality, price stability were corrected by frequent devaluation of their currency. High interest rates (in their native currency) restrained tendencies to happy-go-lucky overspending.

Germany on the other hand has a hard working,population, willing to forego pay raises,and a very disciplined central bank. Historically, the German Mark regularly appreciated in value. Like the Swiss Franc, which is still appreciating against Euro and Dollar.

This has always been like this, and will not change drastically.

The Euro is an example of human stupidity. Politically correct thinking can not fathom that cultures have totally different life styles and attitudes which can not be tied to one single currency. Argentinia failed catastrophically afther they tied their currency to the dollar.

Germans need to spend more then the Italians and Spanish,. Greeks need to sacrifice and work more then the Germans.

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French presidential election was decided by Nafissatou Diallo. And by feminist rape and harassment laws

hollande-strauss-kahnSocialist Hollande triumphs in French presidential poll, thanks to Nafissatou Diallo and feminist rape and harassment laws. Hollande had already declared he would run against Strauss-Kahn in the Socialist primary race last year when Strauss-Kahn’s political career was cut short by allegations he had assaulted and attempted to rape the New York hotel worker Nafissatou Diallo. Charges against Strauss-Kahn were eventually dropped, with prosecutors citing "substantial credibility issues" with the alleged victim. 1

Nafissatou Diallo had accused Dominique Strauss-Kahn of rape. Feminist pressure ahs dismantled due process specifically in rape accusations. So Dominique Strauss-Kahn was imprisoned upon a mere unproven and uncorroborated accusation. Were he a mere mortal without a million dollar dream team of lawyers, investigators, and bail payments, he probably would not have escaped and spend decades in prison. But still, his career was over. Thanks to this unproven accusation by Nafissatou Diallo, a proven liar and embezzler. Add to this some other accusations of improper and somewhat aggressive pursuit of women. Such harassment laws, also espoused by feminists, protect women from the terrible trauma of being pursued with too much zeal by men.

Nafissatou-Diallo-menteuseHuman-Stupidity keeps wondering why feminism is not about female empowerment, about finding the inner strength so they could deal with verbal behavior without needing protection of a police state.

Were it not for Nafissatou Diallo, and feminist rape and harassment legislation, Strauss Kahn would have remained his party’s favorite and is likely to have been in the race and might have become French president. Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s arrest paved the way for a goal that had long eluded the political career of 57-year-old French Socialist François Hollande: to square off against President Nicolas Sarkozy in next month’s election. The international monetary fund got a different chief with different policy regarding the Euro. A hedge fund manager could have made Billions had he foreseen Strauss-Kahn‘s arrest and the subsequent fluctuations of the exchange rate.  Many powerful men have been marred and destroyed by women’s allegations.

Germany’s Central Bank against the World of unlimited money printing

jens-weidmann-bundesbankGermany has, tacitly and automatically, already loaned € 547 Billions to Southern European countries.  Add to this the hundreds of Billions in bonds the European Central Bank already bought, in violation of their charter. Germany is responsible for 27% of all these. For more if other guarantors fail to pay. In addition to Germany being a net payer for the EC budget, year by year, to aid moneys to weaker countries. Plus German  guarantees for Greek and other bonds that probably will never be paid.back. 

    Most significantly for German public opinion, Weidmann’s message spoke about possible losses for the Eurosystem of member-country central banks caused by growing internal imbalances among European central banks generated by capital flight from southern EMU members. Weidmann’s letter, which found its way into the columns of the conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, appeared to suggest more secure collateralization for the overall ECB credits to weaker EMU central banks, which now amount to more than €800 billion under the ECB’s Target-2 electronic payment system.

    The latest Bundesbank figures show that the Bundesbank’s share of these credits rose from €498 billion to €547 billion in February, pointing to continued capital flight from the southern to the northern members of EMU. Weidmann reawakens debate on Bundesbank’s power

The German Bundesbank is owed  € 547 Billion in target claims the European Central Bank. This is € 13,000 Euro per employed German.

Our life insurance policies and savings accounts now are owed more than 13,000 € per German worker from open target claims against the other central banks in the euro zone. These demands can not be made due, get an interest rate below inflation, and will prove to be wholly or partially worthless, if the Euro breaks or if Euro countries go bankrupt. 2

Germany is still haunted by the memory of the hyperinflation of the 1920s. That's one reason why many Germans are so opposed to printing money to solve the euro crisis.The world blames Germany for attaching conditions to loaning or rather giving away money they legally should never give in the first place. The world wants Germany to bail out all of Europe, to give enormous guarantees that some day might become due as true financial liabilities for Germany. Risk Germany’s bankruptcy to bail out Europe.

Saving the Euro

Germany’s Central Bank against the World

Jens Weidmann, the new president of Germany’s Bundesbank, is strongly opposed to making the European Central Bank the lender of last resort in efforts to prop up the common currency. It’s a lonely fight, however, and the pressure from Germany’s European partners is intense. Some warn that Weidmann’s course could end up destroying the euro. By SPIEGEL Staff.

Hasn’t the Euro already been destroyed by insane spending and borrowing?  World wide, governments borrow money with no intent to ever pay it back. Rather they pay it with the next loan.

And then they are unable to afford the new loan because the interest increased. This is not unexpected, it has caused insolvency in Latin America 20 years ago.

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No bailout! European differences in work ethic and culture can not be overcome by transfer union

Different work ethics and morals cause different monetary politics, and make Northern and Southern European economic policies incompatible. Transfer Unions between West and East Germany, Northern and Southern Italy have only wasted money. Bailout attempts will spread bankruptcy to healthy countries. Germany would be the last to fail under the debt of all of Europe. USA and Switzerland function perfectly with clear no-bailout policies towards their states and cities.


Greek-CrisisThe European Divide

In Northern Europe, culture, quite aside from the law, supplies a sin and guilt control mechanism. We have set rules for moral and ethical behaviour which we expect everyone to adhere to. The core value of a need to achieve is a stimulus for entrepreneurship and economic development. It is our psychological mainspring. Governments build their policies around this fundamental core value which affects the entire socio-cultural system. The Swedes ‘carry Luther on their shoulders’ and believe they need to do a good day’s work before they can partake in any reward – as do all the Nordic countries.  Success equals personal achievement, the drive to get things done, and accumulating capital to gain status and wealth.

In Southern Europe, shame tends to be the control mechanism, with one’s relationship to other people and to the group determining acceptable behaviour.  Ethics is more related to the situation and who is involved, so ‘rules’ as we perceive them are often ‘broken’. Style is everything; manliness (machismo) counts and should be displayed; dignity and honour must be maintained.  The Cultural Value of “The Public Man” is the desire to be someone rather than do something.Success equals social power; being someone personally important, being surrounded by people who look up to you and are dependent on you.

Just across the Channel and beyond, being who you are counts for more than what you have achieved; security comes not from individual effort but from reciprocal relationships which mould your expectations of lifestyle and your place in society.  Friendships are formal and a great amount of time is given to nurturing these.   Large, extended families, including distant blood relatives and close family friends, are the norm which have strong emotional ties, giving a powerful commitment to family rather than the rest of the world. Taxi drivers and hotel receptionists often try and impress upon us, the foreigner, how well connected they are to give themselves status.

In cultures like these, WORK per sé holds little value and is to be avoided if possible.Developing friends and connections is THE form of capital investment – not ‘personal development’ as we know it in the UK.  The genteel pursuit of leisure gives status – not the image of industriousness and efficiency as in the North.  3

Different Ethics, incompatible financial and economic attitudes

flags-germany-europe2The Southern European countries have a different pay and work ethic then Northern European countries. Southern Europeans strike more for wage increases, for lower work hours and earlier retirement. They use more borrowed money, like there is no tomorrow, for instant gratification.  Maybe it makes the Southerners  happier and more humane then the Northern European work animals. The northern countries have more self discipline, work ethic, self sacrifice.

Historically, before the Euro, the southern European currencies regularly suffered devaluations to re-instate an equilibrium.  Now putting these countries into one currency simply leads to Southern Europe having too high salaries, too high cost, and being too uncompetitive. These are not the countries where all citizens voluntarily lower salaries, and happily increase work hours and retirement age.

Spain Labor Market Incompatible With Euro

Well, reading thru Op-Ed pieces in the New York Times I came across a short piece by U Maryland economist Gayle Allard who explains a core problem with Spain’s economy as a member of the Euro: The country needs periodic bouts of inflation to undo the distortions caused by very powerful unions. This makes Spain’s entry into the euro zone an act of enormous political folly for all involved.

While it was doing its fiscal homework, however, Spain overlooked a key requirement for the currency area: staying competitive without a national exchange rate. Spanish labor costs chronically rise much faster than productivity.

Spain needs bouts of inflation as long as collective bargaining remains highly politicized. A country that needs periodic bouts of inflation should not share a currency with Germany. One doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist running complex computer models to figure that out.

No state and city bailout in USA and Switzerland. No major transfer Unions

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Trillions to save the Euro? World currencies, a house of cards!

The Euro, the common European currency, was bound to fail. One can not bind together nations with totally different economic system, with totally different citizen’s attitudes into one Union. While Germany kept fiscal discipline (well, relatively), German Unions and German workers kept moderation, while other countries took advantage of cheap credit and stable currency and incurred huge debts and huge salary increases like there is no tomorrow. The salaries in the crisis countries are much higher than, for example, in Germany. So underpaid German workers now will bail out the highly paid Greek workers, that have more vacation and retire earlier?

The bail out favors banks, who earn high risk premiums on interest, while the government assumes risk and buys bad credit. All this in violation of the EU no bailout clause. And giving financial incentive for risky behavior by banks.

Greece should have been allowed to go bankrupt. That is market economy. Let someone else buy the failed banks and continue running them. Let the bank managers be arrested for doing unsound business. The bank must not loan money that can not be repaid.

  • Additionally, every nation in the world, including Germany and the USA, have too high a debt.
  • And that a system based on compounded interest can not work in the long run ( 1 cent with 4% interest yield in 2000 years  $0.01 * 1.04^2000=  1.16594643150219980412675240849 e+32=  $ 1165946431502199804126752408490
One should start asking questions why countries can not be run without resorting to debt.

Human-Stupidity is just giving food for thoughts. We are just pointing to the stupidity that might ruin entire populations.

World currencies, country finances, world economy is seriously stupid, based on stupid belief, based on greed of banks, politicians, and yes, the normal citizen who wants his benefits now, on loaned money.

Countries should repay loaned money in times of strong economy. Not increase loans more and more. That is Keynesian economics.

Spiegel Online International: Top Economist on the Euro Crisis; ‘
The German Government Will Pay Up’, June 27, 2011

In a SPIEGEL interview, leading German economist Stefan Homburg argues that euro-zone members should not bail out Greece, discusses who is making a profit from the crisis and explains why he himself is buying Greek bonds. "I believe in the boundless stupidity of the German government," he says.

More related articles

All quotes from :
Spiegel Online International: Top Economist on the Euro Crisis; ‘The German Government Will Pay Up’, June 27, 2011

In a market economy, even in the case of a plumber whose customers don’t pay their bills, it’s never a question of getting creditors "involved" (in helping to deal with a bankruptcy). Instead, when push comes to shove, it is creditors, and creditors alone, who have to write off their loans. Only then do they have an incentive to carefully choose who they lend money to. A market economy with no personal liability cannot function. The government bailout initiatives create misdirected incentives that continuously exacerbate the problems on the financial markets.

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